Public Betting Ncaaf
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*Public Betting Ncaaf
*Public Betting Ncaa Basketball
*Public Betting Ncaaf Wunderdog
*Public Betting Ncaaf Betting
*Public Betting Ncaaf Against
*Public Betting Ncaaf Rules
*NG 2021-03-04-18-00-00 Cached 2021-03-03 18:40:01. College Football Betting 1. Fade the Public 80% or Higher in Big Games “Big Games” are matchups between major conference rivalries.
*The good news for the betting public - and, really, for all of us - is that 2020 is almost over. College football. The early betting action on the Clemson-Ohio State College Football.
*College Basketball Public Consensus (All Times Eastern) Mon, Mar. 8, 2021 ATS Total Rot# Teams Bets Percentage Bets Percentage; 6:30pm: 783.
With so many games to choose from, betting on college football can provide great returns if you make smart predictions. When you use the NCAA football consensus picks found here, you are taking advantage of very specific data in the form of the public consensus. Knowing how the public is betting can shape your college football wagers.How to Use the Odds Comparison Tool
Compare odds across legal US sportsbooks at ScoreandOdds.com to help you profit throughout the college football season. Find out how to use the odds comparison tool, along with other college football betting tips below.
Are you in a state or traveling to a state with legal sports betting, such as New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Our odds comparison tool is just for you.
Highlighting the best lines — spreads, totals and moneylines — from multiple sportsbooks across the sports betting industry, use our odds tool to add line-shopping to your sports betting routine. Doing so will save you time and money while betting on college football, NFL, NBA and more! Simply click on spreads, totals or moneylines underneath Bet Type. Highlighting the line in red, the tool will direct you to best sportsbook for all of your favorite college football picks. And of course, start by learning how to read lines if you’re new to sports betting.
Additionally, each sportsbook featured in our odds comparison tool has a welcome promo for all new users. Click on the bet you want and sign up today to take advantage of free bets and/or deposit bonuses at various sportsbooks !
Of course, if you are new to college football betting, or sports betting in general, you first need to understand what you are looking at in terms of NCAAF spreads, moneylines and point totals. NCAAF Betting Glossary & Tips
Spread – The most popular way to bet on college football is by picking a team against the spread (ATS). You will either wager on the favorite or the underdog to cover the spread. The Favorite is the team giving or laying points (ex: Alabama -13.5). The underdog is the team getting points (ex: Notre Dame +13.5).
By betting on the underdog, the team does not have to win the game outright for you to win your bet. The team you bet on need to lose by less than the spread, i.e, the number of points they are getting. An outright win will cash your bet as well, but a win isn’t necessary. Example: If you bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish +13.5, the bet wins if the Irish lose by 13 points or less (or win outright. If the odds tool showed a sportsbook had the spread at +14, that’s where you want to place the bet. An extra half-point can be the difference between a losing wager and a push (a tie, in which a bettor neither loses nor wins money).
College Betting Tip: Key numbers are not as important in college football as they are in the NFL. College football games often have larger point spreads, and there’s more parity between teams. Still, finding the best lines by using an odds comparison tool and all the legal US sportsbooks available to you is vital if you want to profit betting against the spread.
Money Line – By betting on the moneyline, you are only wagering on what college football team will win. Large favorites require you to risk more money than you will win (ex: Oklahoma Sooners -450 requires you to risk $45 to win $10). Conversely, betting on underdogs will earn bettors more money than they risk (ex: Texas Longhorns +400, a $10 bet will earn you $40 profit).
College Betting Tip: Moneyline betting in college football is even less popular than it is in the NFL. For a lot of games with larger spreads, moneylines aren’t even available. With public bettors leaning towards favorites, there is generally more value betting on underdogs, specifically underdogs that are getting 2-6.5 points on the spread.
Total (Over/Under) – Betting on the Over/Under or point total means you’re placing bets on the total number of points scored by both teams. So if a game has a total (or Over/Under) of 65 points before kickoff, you can bet on Over or Under 65 total combined points between the two teams for the entire game. Points scored in overtime are included, which can really rack up in a college football overtime. Additionally, there are point totals for quarters and halves.
College Betting Tip: Focus on a conference or a few specific teams when handicapping college football point totals. With so many college football teams and games, oddsmakers are at a disadvantage. You don’t have to beat them on every game, you just need to pick a few spots where you think they’re wrong, which happens a lot more on a college football betting slate than say an NFL Sunday.
Vigorish (vig) or Juice – Ever wonder how sportsbooks turn a profit? It’s the vigorish or juice, i.e., the fee sportsbooks take when sports bettors place wagers. This fee is imbedded in the betting ling, giving sportsbooks a mathematical advantage. Sportsbooks typically have a vig of -110 on both sides of a bet, meaning you have to risk $110 for every $100 you want to win. Taking into account the vigorish, you need to win not half of your bets but at least 52.4% to break even. While -110 is typical, some sportsbooks are nicer than others when it comes to charging bettors juice. You will want to use SAO’s odds tool to find which sportsbooks are charging the least amount for all of your college football picks.
College Betting Tip: College football is a softer betting market than the NFL, making it easier to win over 52.4% of your bets. Other College Football Betting Terms
Parlay – A parlay involves two or more picks, all of which have to win outright to payout. You have a five-team parlay, and all but one game wins? You hit 80% of your bets, but your parlay still loses just the same as if you went 0-for-5. Two-team parlays traditionally pay 2.6-to-1, three-team parlays pay 6-to-1, four-team parlays pay 10-to-1, etc. Though we refer to these as “two-team parlays,” parlays can consist of picks on the point totals and sometimes even props. Use our parlay calculator for your convenience.
College Betting Tip: Parlays attract bettors, especially beginning bettors, with large payouts. But don’t be fooled. Unless you’re confident you have a large edge in two or more games, betting parlays will eat away your sports betting bankroll.
Teasers – Like a parlay, teasers require more than one pick, and all picks in your teaser must hit. Teasers are a way college football bettors can move multiple point spreads (or totals) to their favor. Since the points are adjusted for the bettor, teasers do not have the large payouts that parlays do.
College Betting Tip: College football games tend to have larger point totals and spreads than NFL games. You can find point totals anywhere from 60-80 points, especially in a pass-happy conference like the Big 12. College football scores are much more volatile than NFL scores, making college football teasers less advantageous.
Live Betting – Live betting occurs after a game starts. Did you sleep in and miss the kickoff of an early 11 am college football game? Don’t tilt! Most US sportsbooks will have live lines available for you to bet on while the game is still in progress.
College Betting Tip:Your team takes an early lead, but an injury or specific scheme leaves you concerned about your bet? Use live lines to hedge your original pre-game bet, minimizing your potential losses. In some cases, you can use live lines to find “middling” opportunities. A “middle” is when you use two different spreads to bet on and against the same team. You can win both bets if the scoring margin falls in between the two spreads. Bettors can also use live lines to middle the Over/Under.
College football season is an incredible time of the year filled with literally thousands of opportunities to hunt down value and turn a killer profit. But, picking winners is not always as easy as it sounds. In a sport where value is tight, you have to find every edge you can to try and get a leg up on the competition.
In this guide, we’re going to look at the most profitable college football betting strategies, tips, and tricks. Our team of betting experts has compiled their knowledge into one cohesive guide for your reading pleasure. This sort of insider information is normally not given for free or given away at all. Experts like to keep this stuff close to the vest because educating the betting public is never a smart move.
But, we’ve convinced them to open up and share this information with you completely free of charge. These are not their bottom of the barrel betting strategy tips either. These are the secrets and strategies they use on a weekly basis to continually locate value and beat the college football betting market.
Will reading these tips instantly make you a master college football bettor? 100%, without a doubt, nope. Not what you were expecting us to say, was it? Well, here’s the truth. The secret to beating college football betting is three steps.
*The first step is getting the information and strategies you need to know in order to beat the game. That’s usually the most guarded step and is what we’re taking care of for you here today.
*The second step is utilizing those strategies to do the proper research and find the value spots.
*The third and final step is having the discipline to follow your strategy and make the bets you know you should.
It’s the combination of these three steps that will make you a winner betting college football.
Here’s what we can guarantee you. When you finish reading and studying this guide, you will have a clear direction on what you need to research and how to find value sports betting college football. It’s up to you after that to put in the work and fire off the winning bets. You’ll leave here with all of the necessary tools, though, to be a big winner. Understand the Differences from the NFL
A lot of college football bettors didn’t start betting on college. A large percentage of them started in the NFL and then made the successful transition into betting the Saturday slate of football games. But, for every one of these NFL bettors that successfully made the transition, there was a whole slew who failed miserably. Why? Well, for most of them it was the inability to adapt to the changes and differences between the two leagues.
If you’re someone who is used to betting on the NFL and is looking to dabble in the college market now, make sure you pay attention. The NFL is NOT the same as college football. Yes, they are playing the same sport, and the points are scored the same way, but the things you have to pay attention to when betting are vastly different. To lead off this strategy guide, let’s look at a few of the ways that the NFL and NCAAF (college football) are different. Bigger Spreads
Prepare yourself for some game spreads that you’re going to have to double check aren’t typos. In the NFL, seeing a spread over 10 points is massive. Seeing a spread over 40 or 50 points in college football is really no big deal. Because there are so many teams in NCAAF, you’re going to end up with a ton of horrible mismatches where you have a team just below NFL caliber playing against a team that might struggle beating some high schools.
Why is this important? Well, for one, we didn’t want you to have any shell shock the first time you looked at college football lines. Second, we want to point out that you shouldn’t be scared of looking at these games for value. Often, bettors will stay away from these games when they really are no different than a game with a spread of just a few points. In fact, when the spread gets a lot bigger, it leaves more room for errors and bad lines which means opportunities for you. Smaller Betting Pool
The amount of money being bet on college football is significantly less than the amount of money being bet on NFL games. Even if the same total amount of money was being bet on each sport, there are so many games within college football that the amount on each individual game would be much less.
What does this mean for you? Well, it means that the lines are going to be much more volatile than they are in the NFL. If a line moves a full point in the NFL, that’s a big movement and a big deal. In college football, it’s not uncommon for lines to move 3 or 4 or more points on a regular basis. This is because due to the lower betting volume it doesn’t take as much money to shift the line. A bet size that might do nothing to the line in the NFL might have a drastic change on a college football betting line at a particular sportsbook.
We’ll talk about the strategic implications of this more in detail when we discuss the timeframe in which you should capitalize on favorable betting lines in a later section. For now, just be aware that the betting volume on college football games is going to be smaller than that of the NFL leading to much more fluid and volatile betting lines. Intangibles Become More Important
The NFL is filled with professionals. College football is filled with kids fresh out of their parent’s house. This means that the intangibles of a game are going to play a much larger role in college football than they will with the NFL.
For example, a high-profile game in the NFL might have a small impact on the players and a team, but most of them have experienced the big stage before. A regular Sunday game is not that much different than a Monday Night Football game late in the season. Yes, it is different and should be accounted for when betting, but the difference between the two is not as great as our next example.You have kids that are used to playing in front of 200 people on a Friday night that are now about to play in front of 90,000+ people, tv cameras, and NFL scouts. If you don’t think that is going to have an effect on how some people play, you’re living in another world.
This is just one small example of the intangibles that we’re talking about. You need to weigh everything that occurs surrounding the game, the implications, and most importantly the effect that is going to have on the players in the game. Emotions are going to run a lot higher, and because they are not professionals with a ton of experience, they might not be as well equipped (especially in their freshman season) to handle this. Don’t forget this when you’re making your bets. Statistics Can be Misleading
This strategy tip could have easily fit in the above section on differences from the NFL, but it’s so important that we deemed it should be put into its own individual section. When you are looking at NFL statistics, you typically have a long history to go off of. Even if you’re looking at the statistics of a rookie, you can fall back on their college stats which will give you a pretty good idea of how they are likely to perform in the NFL. Sure, that is not ideal, but you at least have those numbers at your disposal should you need them when determining whether to make a bet.
In college football, though, you’ll often find yourself with an extremely small sample size to pull statistics from. If a player is a freshman, all you have to go off of are their high school stats which we hopefully all know are pretty close to worthless. Due to the massive variance in the skill of opponents in high school, statistics from that time in a player’s career and pretty close to worthless in this context.
Here’s the problem that a lot of people miss. Stat sites will sometimes not point out the fact that the stats are coming from a small sample size. If you have a betting system that hinges on let’s say the yards per rush of a running back, how good are the stats going to be if you’re pulling data from one single game? We can tell you from a stats point of view, they will be worthless. Everyone has seen players have good and bad games, especially their first few games playing on a bigger stage.
The point you need to take away from this is two-fold. First, you need to make sure that the stats you are using to decide your bets are coming from an adequate sample size. Just a couple of games is not really the definition of adequate in this context.
Second, make sure that these stats are from comparable opponents.
Remember how we said there is a huge variance in the skill level of teams in college football? Well, if a player has incredible stats, but they were all against lower-tier schools and they are about to play a high-powered, top-ranked school, you need to weigh that into your equation. This would be the same as using stats from a player’s high school career against opponents who will never play another snap after they graduate high school. Using stats is an incredible way to make effective college football betting picks. But, if you aren’t using the right stats or an adequate sample size, you might as well be setting your money on fire because the numbers are going to be worthless.Capitalize on Favorable Betting Lines QuicklyPublic Betting Ncaaf
As we mentioned earlier, the volume of the betting market is going to be significantly smaller in college football especially on the lower tier games. This means that lines are going to change much more frequently and much quicker than they would in a higher volume market like the NFL. What this means for you is that you’re going to have to be a lot more strategic in how you time your bets.
If you see a very favorable line, chances are some other sharp bettors out there are seeing it too. If the sportsbook you’re betting at is filled with sharps, that line is not going to last long. The best advice here would be to either find a sportsbook with less educated bettors or be prepared to jump on those favorable lines as quickly as possible. This might require you to monitor lines a little more aggressively than you would with the NFL or another sport, but if you want to win you have to do what is necessary.
The perk of the smaller volume markets, though, is that the higher number of line fluctuations means that you’re going to have a lot more opportunities to find value on any given week. Determine what line you like for a particular game and then start hawking the books looking for the best line possible. Don’t Bet the Full Spectrum of Games
Whoa boy, do we know how tempting this can be… With tons of different games and bets to choose from
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*Public Betting Ncaaf
*Public Betting Ncaa Basketball
*Public Betting Ncaaf Wunderdog
*Public Betting Ncaaf Betting
*Public Betting Ncaaf Against
*Public Betting Ncaaf Rules
*NG 2021-03-04-18-00-00 Cached 2021-03-03 18:40:01. College Football Betting 1. Fade the Public 80% or Higher in Big Games “Big Games” are matchups between major conference rivalries.
*The good news for the betting public - and, really, for all of us - is that 2020 is almost over. College football. The early betting action on the Clemson-Ohio State College Football.
*College Basketball Public Consensus (All Times Eastern) Mon, Mar. 8, 2021 ATS Total Rot# Teams Bets Percentage Bets Percentage; 6:30pm: 783.
With so many games to choose from, betting on college football can provide great returns if you make smart predictions. When you use the NCAA football consensus picks found here, you are taking advantage of very specific data in the form of the public consensus. Knowing how the public is betting can shape your college football wagers.How to Use the Odds Comparison Tool
Compare odds across legal US sportsbooks at ScoreandOdds.com to help you profit throughout the college football season. Find out how to use the odds comparison tool, along with other college football betting tips below.
Are you in a state or traveling to a state with legal sports betting, such as New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Our odds comparison tool is just for you.
Highlighting the best lines — spreads, totals and moneylines — from multiple sportsbooks across the sports betting industry, use our odds tool to add line-shopping to your sports betting routine. Doing so will save you time and money while betting on college football, NFL, NBA and more! Simply click on spreads, totals or moneylines underneath Bet Type. Highlighting the line in red, the tool will direct you to best sportsbook for all of your favorite college football picks. And of course, start by learning how to read lines if you’re new to sports betting.
Additionally, each sportsbook featured in our odds comparison tool has a welcome promo for all new users. Click on the bet you want and sign up today to take advantage of free bets and/or deposit bonuses at various sportsbooks !
Of course, if you are new to college football betting, or sports betting in general, you first need to understand what you are looking at in terms of NCAAF spreads, moneylines and point totals. NCAAF Betting Glossary & Tips
Spread – The most popular way to bet on college football is by picking a team against the spread (ATS). You will either wager on the favorite or the underdog to cover the spread. The Favorite is the team giving or laying points (ex: Alabama -13.5). The underdog is the team getting points (ex: Notre Dame +13.5).
By betting on the underdog, the team does not have to win the game outright for you to win your bet. The team you bet on need to lose by less than the spread, i.e, the number of points they are getting. An outright win will cash your bet as well, but a win isn’t necessary. Example: If you bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish +13.5, the bet wins if the Irish lose by 13 points or less (or win outright. If the odds tool showed a sportsbook had the spread at +14, that’s where you want to place the bet. An extra half-point can be the difference between a losing wager and a push (a tie, in which a bettor neither loses nor wins money).
College Betting Tip: Key numbers are not as important in college football as they are in the NFL. College football games often have larger point spreads, and there’s more parity between teams. Still, finding the best lines by using an odds comparison tool and all the legal US sportsbooks available to you is vital if you want to profit betting against the spread.
Money Line – By betting on the moneyline, you are only wagering on what college football team will win. Large favorites require you to risk more money than you will win (ex: Oklahoma Sooners -450 requires you to risk $45 to win $10). Conversely, betting on underdogs will earn bettors more money than they risk (ex: Texas Longhorns +400, a $10 bet will earn you $40 profit).
College Betting Tip: Moneyline betting in college football is even less popular than it is in the NFL. For a lot of games with larger spreads, moneylines aren’t even available. With public bettors leaning towards favorites, there is generally more value betting on underdogs, specifically underdogs that are getting 2-6.5 points on the spread.
Total (Over/Under) – Betting on the Over/Under or point total means you’re placing bets on the total number of points scored by both teams. So if a game has a total (or Over/Under) of 65 points before kickoff, you can bet on Over or Under 65 total combined points between the two teams for the entire game. Points scored in overtime are included, which can really rack up in a college football overtime. Additionally, there are point totals for quarters and halves.
College Betting Tip: Focus on a conference or a few specific teams when handicapping college football point totals. With so many college football teams and games, oddsmakers are at a disadvantage. You don’t have to beat them on every game, you just need to pick a few spots where you think they’re wrong, which happens a lot more on a college football betting slate than say an NFL Sunday.
Vigorish (vig) or Juice – Ever wonder how sportsbooks turn a profit? It’s the vigorish or juice, i.e., the fee sportsbooks take when sports bettors place wagers. This fee is imbedded in the betting ling, giving sportsbooks a mathematical advantage. Sportsbooks typically have a vig of -110 on both sides of a bet, meaning you have to risk $110 for every $100 you want to win. Taking into account the vigorish, you need to win not half of your bets but at least 52.4% to break even. While -110 is typical, some sportsbooks are nicer than others when it comes to charging bettors juice. You will want to use SAO’s odds tool to find which sportsbooks are charging the least amount for all of your college football picks.
College Betting Tip: College football is a softer betting market than the NFL, making it easier to win over 52.4% of your bets. Other College Football Betting Terms
Parlay – A parlay involves two or more picks, all of which have to win outright to payout. You have a five-team parlay, and all but one game wins? You hit 80% of your bets, but your parlay still loses just the same as if you went 0-for-5. Two-team parlays traditionally pay 2.6-to-1, three-team parlays pay 6-to-1, four-team parlays pay 10-to-1, etc. Though we refer to these as “two-team parlays,” parlays can consist of picks on the point totals and sometimes even props. Use our parlay calculator for your convenience.
College Betting Tip: Parlays attract bettors, especially beginning bettors, with large payouts. But don’t be fooled. Unless you’re confident you have a large edge in two or more games, betting parlays will eat away your sports betting bankroll.
Teasers – Like a parlay, teasers require more than one pick, and all picks in your teaser must hit. Teasers are a way college football bettors can move multiple point spreads (or totals) to their favor. Since the points are adjusted for the bettor, teasers do not have the large payouts that parlays do.
College Betting Tip: College football games tend to have larger point totals and spreads than NFL games. You can find point totals anywhere from 60-80 points, especially in a pass-happy conference like the Big 12. College football scores are much more volatile than NFL scores, making college football teasers less advantageous.
Live Betting – Live betting occurs after a game starts. Did you sleep in and miss the kickoff of an early 11 am college football game? Don’t tilt! Most US sportsbooks will have live lines available for you to bet on while the game is still in progress.
College Betting Tip:Your team takes an early lead, but an injury or specific scheme leaves you concerned about your bet? Use live lines to hedge your original pre-game bet, minimizing your potential losses. In some cases, you can use live lines to find “middling” opportunities. A “middle” is when you use two different spreads to bet on and against the same team. You can win both bets if the scoring margin falls in between the two spreads. Bettors can also use live lines to middle the Over/Under.
College football season is an incredible time of the year filled with literally thousands of opportunities to hunt down value and turn a killer profit. But, picking winners is not always as easy as it sounds. In a sport where value is tight, you have to find every edge you can to try and get a leg up on the competition.
In this guide, we’re going to look at the most profitable college football betting strategies, tips, and tricks. Our team of betting experts has compiled their knowledge into one cohesive guide for your reading pleasure. This sort of insider information is normally not given for free or given away at all. Experts like to keep this stuff close to the vest because educating the betting public is never a smart move.
But, we’ve convinced them to open up and share this information with you completely free of charge. These are not their bottom of the barrel betting strategy tips either. These are the secrets and strategies they use on a weekly basis to continually locate value and beat the college football betting market.
Will reading these tips instantly make you a master college football bettor? 100%, without a doubt, nope. Not what you were expecting us to say, was it? Well, here’s the truth. The secret to beating college football betting is three steps.
*The first step is getting the information and strategies you need to know in order to beat the game. That’s usually the most guarded step and is what we’re taking care of for you here today.
*The second step is utilizing those strategies to do the proper research and find the value spots.
*The third and final step is having the discipline to follow your strategy and make the bets you know you should.
It’s the combination of these three steps that will make you a winner betting college football.
Here’s what we can guarantee you. When you finish reading and studying this guide, you will have a clear direction on what you need to research and how to find value sports betting college football. It’s up to you after that to put in the work and fire off the winning bets. You’ll leave here with all of the necessary tools, though, to be a big winner. Understand the Differences from the NFL
A lot of college football bettors didn’t start betting on college. A large percentage of them started in the NFL and then made the successful transition into betting the Saturday slate of football games. But, for every one of these NFL bettors that successfully made the transition, there was a whole slew who failed miserably. Why? Well, for most of them it was the inability to adapt to the changes and differences between the two leagues.
If you’re someone who is used to betting on the NFL and is looking to dabble in the college market now, make sure you pay attention. The NFL is NOT the same as college football. Yes, they are playing the same sport, and the points are scored the same way, but the things you have to pay attention to when betting are vastly different. To lead off this strategy guide, let’s look at a few of the ways that the NFL and NCAAF (college football) are different. Bigger Spreads
Prepare yourself for some game spreads that you’re going to have to double check aren’t typos. In the NFL, seeing a spread over 10 points is massive. Seeing a spread over 40 or 50 points in college football is really no big deal. Because there are so many teams in NCAAF, you’re going to end up with a ton of horrible mismatches where you have a team just below NFL caliber playing against a team that might struggle beating some high schools.
Why is this important? Well, for one, we didn’t want you to have any shell shock the first time you looked at college football lines. Second, we want to point out that you shouldn’t be scared of looking at these games for value. Often, bettors will stay away from these games when they really are no different than a game with a spread of just a few points. In fact, when the spread gets a lot bigger, it leaves more room for errors and bad lines which means opportunities for you. Smaller Betting Pool
The amount of money being bet on college football is significantly less than the amount of money being bet on NFL games. Even if the same total amount of money was being bet on each sport, there are so many games within college football that the amount on each individual game would be much less.
What does this mean for you? Well, it means that the lines are going to be much more volatile than they are in the NFL. If a line moves a full point in the NFL, that’s a big movement and a big deal. In college football, it’s not uncommon for lines to move 3 or 4 or more points on a regular basis. This is because due to the lower betting volume it doesn’t take as much money to shift the line. A bet size that might do nothing to the line in the NFL might have a drastic change on a college football betting line at a particular sportsbook.
We’ll talk about the strategic implications of this more in detail when we discuss the timeframe in which you should capitalize on favorable betting lines in a later section. For now, just be aware that the betting volume on college football games is going to be smaller than that of the NFL leading to much more fluid and volatile betting lines. Intangibles Become More Important
The NFL is filled with professionals. College football is filled with kids fresh out of their parent’s house. This means that the intangibles of a game are going to play a much larger role in college football than they will with the NFL.
For example, a high-profile game in the NFL might have a small impact on the players and a team, but most of them have experienced the big stage before. A regular Sunday game is not that much different than a Monday Night Football game late in the season. Yes, it is different and should be accounted for when betting, but the difference between the two is not as great as our next example.You have kids that are used to playing in front of 200 people on a Friday night that are now about to play in front of 90,000+ people, tv cameras, and NFL scouts. If you don’t think that is going to have an effect on how some people play, you’re living in another world.
This is just one small example of the intangibles that we’re talking about. You need to weigh everything that occurs surrounding the game, the implications, and most importantly the effect that is going to have on the players in the game. Emotions are going to run a lot higher, and because they are not professionals with a ton of experience, they might not be as well equipped (especially in their freshman season) to handle this. Don’t forget this when you’re making your bets. Statistics Can be Misleading
This strategy tip could have easily fit in the above section on differences from the NFL, but it’s so important that we deemed it should be put into its own individual section. When you are looking at NFL statistics, you typically have a long history to go off of. Even if you’re looking at the statistics of a rookie, you can fall back on their college stats which will give you a pretty good idea of how they are likely to perform in the NFL. Sure, that is not ideal, but you at least have those numbers at your disposal should you need them when determining whether to make a bet.
In college football, though, you’ll often find yourself with an extremely small sample size to pull statistics from. If a player is a freshman, all you have to go off of are their high school stats which we hopefully all know are pretty close to worthless. Due to the massive variance in the skill of opponents in high school, statistics from that time in a player’s career and pretty close to worthless in this context.
Here’s the problem that a lot of people miss. Stat sites will sometimes not point out the fact that the stats are coming from a small sample size. If you have a betting system that hinges on let’s say the yards per rush of a running back, how good are the stats going to be if you’re pulling data from one single game? We can tell you from a stats point of view, they will be worthless. Everyone has seen players have good and bad games, especially their first few games playing on a bigger stage.
The point you need to take away from this is two-fold. First, you need to make sure that the stats you are using to decide your bets are coming from an adequate sample size. Just a couple of games is not really the definition of adequate in this context.
Second, make sure that these stats are from comparable opponents.
Remember how we said there is a huge variance in the skill level of teams in college football? Well, if a player has incredible stats, but they were all against lower-tier schools and they are about to play a high-powered, top-ranked school, you need to weigh that into your equation. This would be the same as using stats from a player’s high school career against opponents who will never play another snap after they graduate high school. Using stats is an incredible way to make effective college football betting picks. But, if you aren’t using the right stats or an adequate sample size, you might as well be setting your money on fire because the numbers are going to be worthless.Capitalize on Favorable Betting Lines QuicklyPublic Betting Ncaaf
As we mentioned earlier, the volume of the betting market is going to be significantly smaller in college football especially on the lower tier games. This means that lines are going to change much more frequently and much quicker than they would in a higher volume market like the NFL. What this means for you is that you’re going to have to be a lot more strategic in how you time your bets.
If you see a very favorable line, chances are some other sharp bettors out there are seeing it too. If the sportsbook you’re betting at is filled with sharps, that line is not going to last long. The best advice here would be to either find a sportsbook with less educated bettors or be prepared to jump on those favorable lines as quickly as possible. This might require you to monitor lines a little more aggressively than you would with the NFL or another sport, but if you want to win you have to do what is necessary.
The perk of the smaller volume markets, though, is that the higher number of line fluctuations means that you’re going to have a lot more opportunities to find value on any given week. Determine what line you like for a particular game and then start hawking the books looking for the best line possible. Don’t Bet the Full Spectrum of Games
Whoa boy, do we know how tempting this can be… With tons of different games and bets to choose from
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